Probabilistic Timed Automata with Clock-Dependent Probabilities

Probabilistic timed automata are classical timed automata extended with discrete probability distributions over edges. We introduce clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata, a variant of probabilistic timed automata in which transition probabilities can depend linearly on clock values. Clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata allow the modelling of a continuous relationship between time passage and the likelihood of system events. We show that the problem of deciding whether the maximum probability of reaching a certain location is above a threshold is undecidable for clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata. On the other hand, we show that the maximum and minimum probability of reaching a certain location in clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata can be approximated using a region-graph-based approach.Comment: Full version of a paper published at RP 201

Baryons in the warm-hot intergalactic medium

Approximately 30%-40% of all baryons in the present-day universe reside in a warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM), with temperatures in the range 105 \u3c T \u3c 107 K. This is a generic prediction from six hydrodynamic simulations of currently favored structure formation models having a wide variety of numerical methods, input physics, volumes, and spatial resolutions. Most of these warm-hot baryons reside in diffuse large-scale structures with a median overdensity around 10-30, not in virialized objects such as galaxy groups or galactic halos. The evolution of the WHIM is primarily driven by shock heating from gravitational perturbations breaking on mildly nonlinear, nonequilibrium structures such as filaments. Supernova feedback energy and radiative cooling play lesser roles in its evolution. WHIM gas may be consistent with observations of the 0.25 keV X-ray background without being significantly heated by nongravitational processes because the emitting gas is very diffuse. Our results confirm and extend previous work by Cen & Ostriker and Davé et al

Therapeutic affordances of online support group use in women with endometriosis

Background: The Internet has provided women living with endometriosis new opportunities to seek support online. Online support groups may provide a range of therapeutic affordances which may benefit these women. Objective: To examine the presence of therapeutic affordances as perceived by women who use endometriosis online support groups. Methods: Sixty-nine women (aged 19 to 50 years; Mean = 34.2; 65.2% UK; 21.7% USA) participated in an online interview exploring online support group use. Participants had been using online support groups on average 2 years and 4 months (Range = 1 month to 14 years, 9 months). Responses were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Results: The analysis revealed 4 therapeutic affordances related to online support group use; i) “connection” i.e. the ability to connect in order to support each other, exchange advice, and to try to overcome feelings of loneliness; ii) “exploration” i.e. the ability to look for information, learn and bolster their knowledge; iii) “narration” i.e. the ability to share their experiences, as well as read about the experiences of others; and iv) “self-presentation” i.e. the ability to manage how they present themselves online. The associated outcomes of use were predominantly positive, such as reassurance and improved coping. However, a number of negative aspects were revealed including: concerns about the accuracy of information, arguments between members, over-reliance on the group, becoming upset by negative experiences or good news items and confidentiality of personal information. Conclusions: Our findings support the SCENA model (Self-presentation, Connection, Exploration, Narration and Adaptation) proposed by Merolli et al., (2014) and reveal a range of positive aspects that may benefit members, particularly in relation to reassurance and coping. However, negative aspects need to be addressed in order to maximise the potential benefit of support groups. Some of these can be addressed relatively easily through making privacy policies clearer, including health professionals to moderate content and structuring forums to encourage the sharing of positive stories

Explicit Model Checking of Very Large MDP using Partitioning and Secondary Storage

The applicability of model checking is hindered by the state space explosion problem in combination with limited amounts of main memory. To extend its reach, the large available capacities of secondary storage such as hard disks can be exploited. Due to the specific performance characteristics of secondary storage technologies, specialised algorithms are required. In this paper, we present a technique to use secondary storage for probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes. It combines state space exploration based on partitioning with a block-iterative variant of value iteration over the same partitions for the analysis of probabilistic reachability and expected-reward properties. A sparse matrix-like representation is used to store partitions on secondary storage in a compact format. All file accesses are sequential, and compression can be used without affecting runtime. The technique has been implemented within the Modest Toolset. We evaluate its performance on several benchmark models of up to 3.5 billion states. In the analysis of time-bounded properties on real-time models, our method neutralises the state space explosion induced by the time bound in its entirety.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24953-7_1

Description and evaluation of an EBM curriculum using a block rotation

BACKGROUND: While previous authors have emphasized the importance of integrating and reinforcing evidence-based medicine (EBM) skills in residency, there are few published examples of such curricula. We designed an EBM curriculum to train family practice interns in essential EBM skills for information mastery using clinical questions generated by the family practice inpatient service. We sought to evaluate the impact of this curriculum on interns, residents, and faculty. METHODS: Interns (n = 13) were asked to self-assess their level of confidence in basic EBM skills before and after their 2-week EBM rotation. Residents (n = 21) and faculty (n = 12) were asked to assess how often the answers provided by the EBM intern to the inpatient service changed medical care. In addition, residents were asked to report how often they used their EBM skills and how often EBM concepts and tools were used in teaching by senior residents and faculty. Faculty were asked if the EBM curriculum had increased their use of EBM in practice and in teaching. RESULTS: Interns significantly increased their confidence over the course of the rotation. Residents and faculty felt that the answers provided by the EBM intern provided useful information and led to changes in patient care. Faculty reported incorporating EBM into their teaching (92%) and practice (75%). Residents reported applying the EBM skills they learned to patient care (86%) and that these skills were reinforced in the teaching they received outside of the rotation (81%). All residents and 11 of 12 faculty felt that the EBM curriculum had improved patient care. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first published EBM curriculum using an individual block rotation format. As such, it may provide an alternative model for teaching and incorporating EBM into a residency program

Effects of acute fatigue on the volitional and magnetically-evoked electromechanical delay of the knee flexors in males and females

Neuromuscular performance capabilities, including those measured by evoked responses, may be adversely affected by fatigue; however, the capability of the neuromuscular system to initiate muscle force rapidly under these circumstances is yet to be established. Sex-differences in the acute responses of neuromuscular performance to exercise stress may be linked to evidence that females are much more vulnerable to ACL injury than males. Optimal functioning of the knee flexors is paramount to the dynamic stabilisation of the knee joint, therefore the aim of this investigation was to examine the effects of acute maximal intensity fatiguing exercise on the voluntary and magnetically-evoked electromechanical delay in the knee flexors of males and females. Knee flexor volitional and magnetically-evoked neuromuscular performance was assessed in seven male and nine females prior to and immediately after: (i) an intervention condition comprising a fatigue trial of 30-seconds maximal static exercise of the knee flexors, (ii) a control condition consisting of no exercise. The results showed that the fatigue intervention was associated with a substantive reduction in volitional peak force (PFV) that was greater in males compared to females (15.0%, 10.2%, respectively, p < 0.01) and impairment to volitional electromechanical delay (EMDV) in females exclusively (19.3%, p < 0.05). Similar improvements in magnetically-evoked electromechanical delay in males and females following fatigue (21%, p < 0.001), however, may suggest a vital facilitatory mechanism to overcome the effects of impaired voluntary capabilities, and a faster neuromuscular response that can be deployed during critical times to protect the joint system

The Genomic Signature of Crop-Wild Introgression in Maize

The evolutionary significance of hybridization and subsequent introgression has long been appreciated, but evaluation of the genome-wide effects of these phenomena has only recently become possible. Crop-wild study systems represent ideal opportunities to examine evolution through hybridization. For example, maize and the conspecific wild teosinte Zea mays ssp. mexicana, (hereafter, mexicana) are known to hybridize in the fields of highland Mexico. Despite widespread evidence of gene flow, maize and mexicana maintain distinct morphologies and have done so in sympatry for thousands of years. Neither the genomic extent nor the evolutionary importance of introgression between these taxa is understood. In this study we assessed patterns of genome-wide introgression based on 39,029 single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 189 individuals from nine sympatric maize-mexicana populations and reference allopatric populations. While portions of the maize and mexicana genomes were particularly resistant to introgression (notably near known cross-incompatibility and domestication loci), we detected widespread evidence for introgression in both directions of gene flow. Through further characterization of these regions and preliminary growth chamber experiments, we found evidence suggestive of the incorporation of adaptive mexicana alleles into maize during its expansion to the highlands of central Mexico. In contrast, very little evidence was found for adaptive introgression from maize to mexicana. The methods we have applied here can be replicated widely, and such analyses have the potential to greatly informing our understanding of evolution through introgressive hybridization. Crop species, due to their exceptional genomic resources and frequent histories of spread into sympatry with relatives, should be particularly influential in these studies

Vitamin D and subsequent all-age and premature mortality: a systematic review

&lt;br&gt;Background: All-cause mortality in the population &#60; 65 years is 30% higher in Glasgow than in equally deprived Liverpool and Manchester. We investigated a hypothesis that low vitamin D in this population may be associated with premature mortality via a systematic review and meta-analysis.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Methods: Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and grey literature sources were searched until February 2012 for relevant studies. Summary statistics were combined in an age-stratified meta-analysis.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Results: Nine studies were included in the meta-analysis, representing 24,297 participants, 5,324 of whom died during follow-up. The pooled hazard ratio for low compared to high vitamin D demonstrated a significant inverse association (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.27) between vitamin D levels and all-cause mortality after adjustment for available confounders. In an age-stratified meta-analysis, the hazard ratio for older participants was 1.25 (95% CI 1.14-1.36) and for younger participants 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24).&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Conclusions: Low vitamin D status is inversely associated with all-cause mortality but the risk is higher amongst older individuals and the relationship is prone to residual confounding. Further studies investigating the association between vitamin D deficiency and all-cause mortality in younger adults with adjustment for all important confounders (or using randomised trials of supplementation) are required to clarify this relationship.&lt;/br&gt

Positive words carry less information than negative words

We show that the frequency of word use is not only determined by the word length \cite{Zipf1935} and the average information content \cite{Piantadosi2011}, but also by its emotional content. We have analyzed three established lexica of affective word usage in English, German, and Spanish, to verify that these lexica have a neutral, unbiased, emotional content. Taking into account the frequency of word usage, we find that words with a positive emotional content are more frequently used. This lends support to Pollyanna hypothesis \cite{Boucher1969} that there should be a positive bias in human expression. We also find that negative words contain more information than positive words, as the informativeness of a word increases uniformly with its valence decrease. Our findings support earlier conjectures about (i) the relation between word frequency and information content, and (ii) the impact of positive emotions on communication and social links.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Conscious thought beats deliberation without attention in diagnostic decision-making: at least when you are an expert

Contrary to what common sense makes us believe, deliberation without attention has recently been suggested to produce better decisions in complex situations than deliberation with attention. Based on differences between cognitive processes of experts and novices, we hypothesized that experts make in fact better decisions after consciously thinking about complex problems whereas novices may benefit from deliberation-without-attention. These hypotheses were confirmed in a study among doctors and medical students. They diagnosed complex and routine problems under three conditions, an immediate-decision condition and two delayed conditions: conscious thought and deliberation-without-attention. Doctors did better with conscious deliberation when problems were complex, whereas reasoning mode did not matter in simple problems. In contrast, deliberation-without-attention improved novices’ decisions, but only in simple problems. Experts benefit from consciously thinking about complex problems; for novices thinking does not help in those cases